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Prediction for CME (2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-17T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26068/-1
CME Note: Halo CME seen primarily to the southwest in association with two separate M5.0+ class solar flares and a strong eruption from Active Region 3633 (S25W73). The eruption is proceeded by another eruption which is impressive in itself; the main eruption starting around 23:18Z as seen in SDO 131 imagery is characterized by a very large scale brightening near Active Region 3363 with rising plasma along the southeastern portion of the active region, widely and quickly moving and opening magnetic field lines seen in SDO 193/171, and a strong post-eruptive arcade signature characterized by intense, regional brightening along the southwest limb in SDO 131. Associated with SEP events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. Arrival signature: A jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 440 km/s, accompanied by a jump in B total to just under 12 nT, an increase in density and rotation of magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-20T16:07Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-19T22:27Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-18 02:15
 - Time at C2: 2023-07-17 23:36
 - Radial speed: 1388.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 53 deg
 - Eruption location: S22W32
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 822.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-19 22:27 (i.e. predicted transit time: 46.85 hours)
Lead Time: 55.62 hour(s)
Difference: 17.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-07-18T08:30Z
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